The Road to Oscars: SAG Awards Nominees

Yesterday, Screen Actors Guild announced its nominees for the 20th annual awards, being the first awards ceremony to do so, this year. I caught up with some international film festivals, but SAG is a very interesting case to predict acting category nominations. Before moving to analyses, here are the nominees (in alphabetical order):

Best Ensemble:

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

August: Osage County

Dallas Buyers Club

Lee Daniel's The Butler

Male Actor in a Leading Role:

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Chiwetel Ejiofor,12 Years A Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniel's the Butler

Female Actor in a Leading Role:

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sanda Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Male Actor in a Supporting Role:

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Daniel Bruhl, Rush

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers

Female Actor in a Supporting Role:

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniel's The Butler

How much does it tell about Oscars?! As a general "rule" SAG nominees give quite clear picture what would Oscar ballot be like. Averagely, 4 out of 5 nominees in each category repeat respective Oscar bid every year (statistically, according to last ten year records). Supporting actor nomination suffers from highest variation, which leaves a question of quite surprising nominees still open - whether James Gandolfini can get a posthumous Oscar, or will Abdi accompany other nominees in 2014, or will this time snubbed Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks) can get a double academy nomination?!

Hanks as a Walt Disney is reported to be a very amazing performance and since actors branch love actors who play public figures (especially Hollywood gods) and they more tend to favor previously nominated/well-known actors, rather than total newcomers, Tom can replace any first time nominee, except Jared Leto, who turns out to be a front runner in this nomination.

As for the lead actor, Leonardo DiCaprio, whose comic performance in the trailer (and I say trailer) of The Wolf of Wall Street gave chills and hope to his fans, can be a very easy possible spoiler. Personally I think that he is not going to make it, unless he really steals whole movie. However, Robert Redford's effective comeback will definitely be honored by academy and he'll most probably replace Forrest Whitaker in final top five.

As for the best ensemble/best picture nominations, 6 SAG winners out of 10 won best picture Oscar the same year, including a shocking victory of Crash. So, anything is possible, but Academy award nominees will relatively be similar.

What are your thoughts? Who do you consider to be a shoo-in for Oscars? Who is going to be snubbed by later awards?