the OSCARs 2013: Predictions (Upd Sep. 12)

OK. I know that it's too early, but I believe that It is never too early for OSCAR predictions as far you can always judge upcoming premieres in a proper way.

OSCAR races have always been the tense one but this year seems to be the most, because Steven Spielberg, Tom HooperKatherine Bigelow, Quentin Tanantino, Ang Lee and some other remarkable directors fight for the major statuette. Tarantino is the only one without a directing win on Academy Awards but generally that doesn't count much.


Many of future contenders have not been even officially released. OSCAR statistics show that most award successful films are represented to the public by the end of the year. And the end is near. I've search over tens of movie sites, have read a lot critics reviews and predictions and have come down to the following likely nominees in respective categories:

(* indicates predicted Winner)

BEST PICTURE

Top Five:
  1. The Master *
  2. Les Miserables
  3. Lincoln
  4. Argo
  5. Life of Pi
If there are six:
     6.  Django Unchained
If there are seven:
     7.  Moonrise Kingdom
If there are eight:
If there are nine:
    9.  Zero Dark Thirty
If there are ten:
   10. Anna Karenina

The Master, Les Miserables and Lincoln are top three choices for most of critics which means OSCAR champ would be one of them. 
Steven Spielberg's biographic drama about america's 16th president is well written, awesomely played and skilfully directed picture. In 2011 the other historic movie (The King's Speech) grabbed 4 Oscars including best motion picture and I don't really believe that this will happen again, so quickly. 
Les Miserables is prettily designed, interestingly adapted musical starring one of the best casts this year: Academy Award winner Russel Crow, nominees Anne Hathaway and Helena Bonham Carter, Hugh Jackman and so on. The last musical winning best picture category was Chicago in 2002 and Tom Hooper's new set can be the tenth one in history. (Only 9 films have done this before).
The Master is smart, fresh and attractive screening of writer's idea. Great acting of Philip Seymour Hoffman, Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams make the story more easy to understand. I think that the brilliance of the idea pushes this movie to the top of the best picture list.

BEST DIRECTOR
  1. Paul Thomas Anderson (the Master) *
  2. Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
  3. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
  4. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
  5. Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of Southern Wild)
No matter The Mater wins best picture or not, Paul Thomas Anderson is going to beat any other directors listed below him.

BEST ACTOR
  1. John Hawkes (the Sessions) *
  2. Joaquin Phoenix (the Master)
  3. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
  4. Bill Murray (Hide Park on Hudson)
  5. Ben Affleck (Argo)
John plays man with iron lung who decides to finally have sex and therefore hires a professional sex surrogate (Helen Hunt). He was nominated in 2011 for his supporting role in Winter's Bone that could be a helpful circumstance to win over other fellow-nominees this year. Besides, this performance is the best of his career.

BEST ACTRESS
  1. Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson)
  2. Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
  3. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of Southern Wild) *
  4. Jennifer Lawrence (the Silver Lining Playbook)
  5. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Laura plays president Roosevelt's cousin who has an affair with him. She's three previous Oscar nominations which makes her quite strong candidate. While Quvenzhane will be the youngest winner of a competitive award in case of winning her first nomination as a leading actress. (Tatum O'neal won Oscar for her supporting role at the age of 10).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
  1. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained) *
  2. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
  3. Russel Crow (Les Miserables)
  4. Alan Arkin (Argo)
  5. Dwight Hanry (Beasts of Southern Wild)
This will be the biggest hit for Leo as he lost three totally deserved nominations and was snubbed couple of times. I think finally he'll his golden man this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
  1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) *
  2. Amy Adams (The Master)
  3. Helen Hunt (the Sessions)
  4. Sally Field (Lincoln)
  5. Annette Bening (Imogene)
Anne is Hollywood's most favorite actress this years, as she got a previous nomination and he r performance in this musical is remarkable I bet that beautiful lady has got huge chances to reach the goal.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
  1. The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson, Writer) *
  2. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Writers)
  3. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino, Writer)
  4. Amour (Michael Haneke, Writer)
  5. Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal, Writer)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
  1. Les Miserables (William Nicholson, Writer)
  2. Lincoln (Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb, Writers) *
  3. Beasts of Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin -Writer, Lucy Alibar - Story By)
  4. Argo (Chris Terrio, Writer)
  5. The Silver Lining Playbook (David O. Russel, MAtthew Quick, Writers)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
  1. Brave *
  2. Hotel Transylvania
  3. Frankenweenie
  4. Rise of Guardians
  5. Wreck-it-Ralp
Brave is Pixar animation, this year's most successful film so far. Pixar has won 6 of 11 animated feature film nominations on OSCARs. This could be 7th. 
Frankenweenie is Tim Burton's another black-n-white horror kids movie. Personally I think that Corpse Bride was much more better so I don't think the latest work brings him the OSCAR.
2012 my total favorite and beloved animation is Hotel Transylvania. I even loved it from trailers and teasers. But I've to admit that in February Brave can be unstoppable.


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
  1. Amour (Austria)
  2. Tabu (Portugal)
  3. Pieta (South Korea) *
  4. Lore (Australia)
(the rest contenders to be announced)

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