PGA made it harder: which movie wins Oscar?

Producers Guild of America, which correctly predicted last 6 Oscar Best Picture winners, was the greatest hope for award pundits this year, because PGA had to answer the most important question of the year: Which movie wins major Oscar in March? Whole race comes down to three motion pictures: American Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave.

After last nights PGA awards, it's got more complicated, cause there was an impossible tie for Best Picture between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. PGA uses preferential voting system, just like the Academy, and with over 4,000 members voting, two winners is mathematically impossible, almost. In order to have a tie in any category voted according to preferential system, both movies shall have the same amount of #1, #2, #3... #10 votes, otherwise one of them wins. It seems that votes were split in a surprisingly exact way. I am quite sure, the same does not happen at Oscars and I still have not idea if any of these movies is a shoo-in winner.

So, let's see what we've got so far, for Oscar race.

Gravity - won PGA, LAFCA, Golden Globe directing nom.

For it: PGA win helps a lot. Also, Cuaron is front runner for Directing and movie seems to be a technical masterpiece. It is very easy to remember. It most probably wins highest number of Oscars this year, including some major technical awards, like Editing and Cinematography, plus directing, why not Best Picture?

Against it: No writing nomination. Last movie winning without screenplay nod was TITANIC in 1998 and it won 11 of them. Also fantasy movie never won Best Picture and it can be a little controversial for voters.

12 Years a Slave - PGA, Golden Globe, drama picture

For it: Won PGA. It is this years most highly acclaimed drama and most people think it's a masterpiece. Also, the reviews are less rave and it can easily get in top of voters list. As #2 and #3 votes play important role to declare the winner, 12 Years A Slave most probably won't be listed in many ballots outside top three.

Against it: Academy has seen similar stories many many times, in many different ways and this is not exceptionally different. It may have "we have already seen this story" reaction and more original movies can pop up the list.

American Hustle - Golden Globe, comedy picture, SAG, NYFCC

For it: Very original story and a bold cast, with 4 acting nominees. American Hustle has most important nominations among these three. It can win at least two acting award, screenplay and a couple of technical/creative nominations. Perfect formula to win Best Picture

Against it: People either love or hate it. Some voters may put it on the top and other on the bottom, which weakens its chances.

Compared to last year, when Argo has been a 100% winner for quite long time before the ceremony, this time it is quite different. We maybe be more surprised on March 2, than yesterday seeing a tie winners at PGA, because this endless battle between three movies can open a possibility to other ones, like The Wolf of Wall Street. Who knows?!

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